Oct 26 2010
Research and Markets has announced the addition of the "Bulgaria Infrastructure Report Q4 2010" report to their offering.
The Bulgaria Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, infrastructure associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Bulgaria's infrastructure industry.
Bulgaria's infrastructure and construction sectors witnessed stellar growth until 2009 as the combination of entry to the EU (in January 2007) and the unsaturated construction and infrastructure market in the country attracted many foreign and domestic investors. However, the momentum then reversed for all three sectors residential, commercial and infrastructure with severe contractions in 2009.
We have engineered a slight upward revision to our 2010 forecast data this quarter. We now anticipate that the construction sector will grow by 0.7% in real terms this year (last quarter, we forecast negligible growth in 2010, estimated at 0.1%). We continue to forecast sector growth of 0.8% in 2011 and 2.4% in 2012. There should then be acceleration of sector growth, but only by a modest magnitude, to 3.2% in 2013, before a slowdown to 2.2% in 2014.
On the whole, these forecasts are clearly quite cautious. Two key factors underpin our continued overall relatively bearish prognosis:- Private sector construction activity. Bulgaria's economy is likely to remain in recession in 2010, before registering only anaemic growth in 2011 and 2012. This will mean that the demand for commercial construction, in particular, will remain subdued. It will also continue to impact upon the residential real estate market.
Government fiscal constraints. The global economic downturn has had a big effect on the Bulgarian governments fiscal position, severely undermining revenues and hence also the availability of funds for investment in public infrastructure. According to the consolidated budget data (the most frequently published), cumulative revenues during the first quarter of 2010 plunged 19.2% compared to the same period a year earlier.
Bulgaria's positioning in our regional Business Environment Ratings has not changed over the last quarter. It is still ranked third from bottom (14th out of 16 countries). Although the country has undergone a slight improvement in its overall score (to 48.3, from 46.3), it continues to suffer significant constraints on potential returns in its infrastructure market and considerable structural risks within that market. The country's performance is underpinned by a relatively strong showing in terms of wider Country Rewards.
Companies Mentioned:
- Glavbolgarstroy
- Mott MacDonald
Source: http://www.researchandmarkets.com/