Aug 17 2010
Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/0882e3/uk_construction_ma) has announced the addition of the "UK Construction Market Forecast 2010 - 2014" report to their offering.
Forecast of the UK construction market by key sector
Construction output in 2010 forecast to decline for third year in a row
Total construction output in GB in 2010 is forecast to be 89,900m at constant 2005 prices which is 2.1% down (2,000m) on the 2009 figure. This is fairly consistent with our January forecast where we predicted a fall of 1,700m. We expect this will be the third year in a row which has seen a fall in overall construction output.
The estimated 2010 construction output is at a level not seen since 2001/2, while forecast output for 2014 at 92,700m is still over 11.6% lower than the 2007 peak of 104,900m (at constant 2005 prices)
When looking at output levels by sector, public spend is expected to hold up for 2010 and then see a large drop from 2011 onwards. First half output figures for public spend are up by over 35% on last year. The drop in private commercial output is not forecast to be as large as was originally feared while there is expected to be a big fall in repair and maintenance in the non housing sector.
Total construction output for 2011 is forecast to be fairly flat with a small reduction of 0.2% on the 2010 figure at constant prices. We expect to see falls in output in all the public sectors, including both new build and R&M, as the new governments cuts really start to bite. However, we expect all the private sectors to see output growth during 2011, which will offset the falls in the public sector
Mel Budd, Managing Director at Leading Edge, commented, with the market sectors moving at different speeds, contractors and building materials manufacturers are going to have to target the right sectors to maximise any growth opportunities.
Overall, we forecast that 2010 and early 2011 will be the low point for the construction sector as a whole with limited growth expected to return to total output in 2012.
The use of forecasts
- As in all forecasting, the forecast for construction output is affected by unforeseen events and is likely to be different from the predictions. However, it is important to identify the key sector trends and develop an appropriate plan that can be adapted should the forecast prove either high or low. The essence is to have an overall strategy in place together with a business plan and revisit the plan on a regular basis when new internal and external data becomes available
- This construction output forecast can be used to predict a companys future sales by developing a sales forecasting regression model. Leading Edge can provide assistance in developing such a model which will differ for each company depending on the sectors in which it operates and the part of the construction cycle in which it is involved. Typically, for a company operating in or supplying to the construction sector, we would build a causal model using construction output forecasts by sector plus specific economic variables
Key Topics Covered:
- Executive summary
- The UK economy
- Output forecasts by construction sector
- Forecasts by selected building materials sector
Source: http://www.researchandmarkets.com/